Non-Ferrous Metals Pricing Intelligence - Executive Summary

Non-ferrous metals recorded generally firmer but highly differentiated movement during August 2026, driven by physical availability, trade-policy uncertainty, supply disruptions, and monetary-policy expectations. Base metals were led by copper and zinc, with copper strengthening as inventory movements toward the U.S. tightened availability, while zinc gained on low exchange stocks and constrained concentrate supply; aluminum remained supported by exceptionally low exchange inventories and incomplete Gulf production recovery, although restoration at a major UAE smelter reduced some supply premium.

Battery and energy metals remained sensitive to supply policies, with lithium carbonate strengthening as the closure of a major Chinese lithium mine delayed the expected return of supply, while cobalt remained supported by controlled exports from the Democratic Republic of Congo, and minor and specialty metals continued to reflect concentrated supply chains and strategic sourcing concerns.

Precious metals recorded strong gains through much of August before correcting sharply late in the month as higher bond yields, a firmer U.S. dollar, and expectations of tighter monetary policy offset some safe-haven support from geopolitical risk; silver stood out, with prices climbing approximately 14%–16% across geographies, supported by rising demand beyond financial assets, particularly from heavy industrial use in electronics.

Key Price Developments & Insights

• Copper: Strengthened on tightening availability outside the U.S., inventory shifts to American warehouses, and refined-copper trade-policy uncertainty.
• Zinc: Strengthened on low exchange inventories and tight concentrate supply, while higher Chinese exports provided some relief.
• Aluminum: Remained supported but volatile as low exchange inventories were partly offset by Gulf production recovery.
• Lithium Carbonate: Strengthened but remained volatile as the delayed restart of a major Chinese mine heightened supply and regulatory uncertainty.
• Precious Metals: Posted strong gains before a late-August correction as geopolitical risk supported demand, while higher yields and a stronger dollar pressured prices.

Top Performing Non-Ferrous Metal Commodity

• Top Mover: Silver
• Average MoM Growth (top 3 geographies): 17.7%
• Volatility Level: High

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Non-Ferrous Metals Commodity Coverage and Key Price Influencers

1. Base Metals

The base-metals category includes aluminum, copper, lead, nickel, tin, and zinc. In August, copper and zinc showed the strongest performance, while aluminum remained supported by low inventories and the ongoing recovery of Gulf production. Nickel remained relatively subdued due to higher inventory availability.

Key Pricing Influencers:

• Copper inventory relocation and trade-policy uncertainty
• Low zinc and aluminum exchange inventories
• Gulf aluminum production recovery
• Indonesian nickel supply conditions

2. Battery & Energy Metals

This category includes cobalt, lithium carbonate, and battery-grade lithium metal. Lithium prices strengthened amid continued uncertainty over the timing of a major Chinese mine restart, while cobalt remained influenced by DRC export controls and quota management.

Key Pricing Influencers:

• Chinese lithium mine restart approvals
• Energy-storage and battery demand
• DRC cobalt export policy
• Downstream inventory management

3. Minor & Specialty Metals

This category includes antimony 99.65%, chromium coarse particle, electrolytic manganese, manganese ore, molybdenum, and rare-earth carbonate. Strategic materials with concentrated supply chains remained more sensitive to policy changes and supply-security concerns than metals primarily driven by regular industrial demand.

Key Pricing Influencers:

• Export controls and strategic-mineral policy
• Concentrated processing capacity
• Supply-chain diversification
• Uneven industrial and steelmaking demand

4. Precious Metals

This category includes gold, palladium, platinum, rhodium, and silver. Precious metals recorded significant gains during August before experiencing a late-month correction amid shifts in monetary-policy expectations.

Key Pricing Influencers:

• Geopolitical and safe-haven demand
• U.S. dollar movement
• Treasury yields and interest-rate expectations
• Automotive and industrial demand

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Pricing Trends, August 2026

• Base Metals

Base metals were broadly firmer but uneven during August, with copper showing the strongest gains as U.S. inventory accumulation, tariff uncertainty, supply disruptions, and tighter exchange availability reduced supply elsewhere. Aluminum remained firm on multi-decade-low exchange stocks, while the ongoing Al Taweelah smelter recovery and additional Asian supply eased Gulf shortage concerns. Zinc strengthened on low inventories and tight concentrate availability, with Chinese exports offering some late-month relief, while nickel remained subdued amid ample inventories, tin stayed sensitive to concentrated supply, and lead showed more balanced market conditions.

• Battery & Energy Metals

Battery and energy metals remained influenced by Chinese supply developments, with lithium carbonate strengthening as the Jianxiawo mine stayed offline pending environmental approval, delaying expected production, while energy-storage demand provided underlying support despite expectations of future supply. Cobalt remained supported by DRC export controls and quota management, while broader concentrate export restrictions increased supply uncertainty; however, the immediate impact was limited as much of the country’s traded cobalt is exported in intermediate form, while downstream inventory management and lower-cobalt battery chemistries moderated demand strength.

• Minor & Specialty Metals

Minor and specialty metals remained selective during August, with strategically important materials such as rare earths and antimony more sensitive to policy, concentrated supply chains, and supply-security concerns. Chromium, manganese, and molybdenum were more closely influenced by steelmaking and industrial activity, leading to regional and sector-specific variations. Overall, materials with concentrated supply remained better supported than those driven mainly by routine industrial demand.

• Precious Metals

Precious metals recorded strong overall gains during August before a sharp late-month correction, with gold and silver supported by geopolitical uncertainty, investment demand, and periods of U.S. dollar weakness, while platinum and palladium also strengthened on investment and industrial demand. Late-month firmer inflation expectations and more hawkish U.S. monetary-policy signals pushed Treasury yields and the dollar higher, reducing the appeal of non-yielding assets and triggering corrections in gold, silver, and platinum, although major precious metals remained stronger overall for the month.

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Non-Ferrous Metals Key Market Drivers

• Copper availability tightened as trade policy reshaped inventories: U.S.-bound copper flows reduced readily available supply in Europe and Asia, while DRC export restrictions and mine/smelter disruptions added supply pressure. Higher replacement costs encouraged careful inventory management, greater scrap recovery, and staggered procurement.
• Aluminum remained tight despite Gulf production recovery: Multi-decade-low exchange inventories kept aluminum markets supported, while gradual Al Taweelah recovery and additional Chinese and Indonesian supply eased, but did not eliminate, Gulf supply concerns.
• Lithium and cobalt remained driven by supply policies: Lithium strengthened as the delayed Jianxiawo mine restart kept near-term supply uncertain, while DRC cobalt export controls supported prices. However, cautious demand and lower cobalt use in some batteries limited broader price gains.
• Zinc tightness contrasted with nickel’s larger inventory buffer: Zinc strengthened on low inventories and constrained concentrate supply, with higher Chinese exports providing some relief. Nickel remained more contained as high refined inventories offset Indonesian supply uncertainty.
• Geopolitical risk and monetary policy drove precious-metal volatility: Gold and silver benefited from geopolitical tensions and periods of dollar weakness before late-August inflation concerns, higher yields, and a stronger dollar triggered corrections across precious metals.

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